Tropical Storm LAN Advisory So, 22.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS STREAMING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTION
OF COOLER, DRIER AIR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER JAPAN, HOWEVER, INCREASING PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. A 220107Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 (115 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (140
KNOTS). TY 25W IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THIS FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 211237Z ASCAT IMAGE (SUPPORTS UNUSUALLY
SMALL 50- AND 64-KNOT WIND RADII).
   B. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EYE WOBBLE,
HOWEVER, TY 25W IS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING POLEWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STABLE AND REMARKABLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 100-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OVER THE KANTO
PLAIN REGION NEAR TAU 24. TY LAN WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WELL AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM
WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT QUICKLY GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. DESPITE THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, TY
25W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH WINDS THROUGH TAU 24.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS DUE TO
THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, AND PROXIMITY OF COLD-SURGE WINDS
AND GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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