MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 27// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS STREAMING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTION OF COOLER, DRIER AIR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER JAPAN, HOWEVER, INCREASING PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. A 220107Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 (115 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (140 KNOTS). TY 25W IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THIS FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 211237Z ASCAT IMAGE (SUPPORTS UNUSUALLY SMALL 50- AND 64-KNOT WIND RADII). B. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EYE WOBBLE, HOWEVER, TY 25W IS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING POLEWARD TOWARD CENTRAL JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STABLE AND REMARKABLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 100-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OVER THE KANTO PLAIN REGION NEAR TAU 24. TY LAN WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WELL AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT QUICKLY GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. DESPITE THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, TY 25W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH WINDS THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, AND PROXIMITY OF COLD-SURGE WINDS AND GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN