Tropical Storm FRANCISCO Advisory Mi, 07.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 062206Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY DECAYING
SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED NORTH OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A DISORGANIZED,
BROAD LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE RJTD DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS), BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. TS 09W IS LOCATED UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS UNDER SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK TS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND
COOLER SST. TS 09W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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