MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 26// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LLCC WITH A SMALL DIMPLE FEATURE FORMING. A 122301Z GPM IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SOMEWHAT ELONGATED BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KTS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE DVROAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VWS WITH TY DOLPHIN TRACKING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TY 07W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO ELONGATE AND TRACK TO THE WEST. AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A BREAK IN THE STR, EXPECT TY DOLPHIN TO TURN POLEWARD AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, THERE WILL BE AN ACCELERATION IN INTENSIFICATION RATE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS ACCESS TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72, THE STR WILL BE FULLY BUILT TO THE NORTHEAST OF TY 07W. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SITUATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LIMITED SPREAD, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN