MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 33// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 481 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOOSENED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 5-NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TY 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DETERIORATE TY 06W AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BROADEN AND GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW. THEREAFTER, THE EXPECTED MID-LATITUDE LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL JAPAN AND FURTHER ON INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN