MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062206Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED NORTH OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A DISORGANIZED, BROAD LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS), BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TS 09W IS LOCATED UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS UNDER SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK TS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST. TS 09W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN