Tropical Storm MERBOK Advisory So, 11.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY CONSOLIDATED AS
CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENED AND FORMATIVE
BANDS BEGAN TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CENTER
ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
102305Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD
04W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL FORECAST AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
   B. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL
JUST EAST OF HONG KONG SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR, EXIT INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN ADDITION
TO THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WILL FUEL GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, LAND
INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 04W WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THEN
DISSIPATE OVER WATER JUST NORTHEAST OF OKINAWA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HWRF AS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THE JTWC TRACK IS LAID JUST TO THE
LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET HWRFS UNLIKELY TIGHT TURN AROUND THE
STR. IN VIEW OF THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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