Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory Fr, 01.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 15-NM AXIS-SYMMETRIC EYE THAT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERGOING AN ANNULAR CYCLE: THE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A UNIFORM RING
OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A LACK OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THIS RING. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS EVEN MORE APPARENT ON A 311539Z GCOMW1 89 GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05
TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED ITS OWN DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE ALOFT THAT IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. STY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM, STY 04W
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT
155 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY MAYSAK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. HOWEVER, WHEN THE CYCLONE MAKES
LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96 OVER CENTRAL LUZON, PHILIPPINES, NEAR
CABANATUAN CITY, IT WILL BE AN INTENSE 95-KNOT TYPHOON. MAYSAK WILL
THEN EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WEAKENED BY THE ROUGH TERRAIN BUT
STILL AT A STRONG TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. DYNAMIC NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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