Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory Mi, 01.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF OROLUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A HIGHLY
SYMMETRICAL CLOUD FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT DIMPLE IN THE CENTER AND
GOOD BANDING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HIMAWARI LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS
OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND BUBBLING CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF THE SYSTEM
BEING VERTICALLY STACKED. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, AN INDUCED
CIRCULATION SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN MADE, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE MSI AS
WELL AS THE HIMAWARI LOOP AND AN EARLIER (301937Z) WINDSAT PASS.
HOWEVER, THE ACTUAL LLCC IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. DUE TO THE UPDATED LOCATION OF THE
SYSTEM, THE ACTUAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS, VICE
THE MOVEMENT ASSESSED AT 19 KNOTS BASED ON THE 18Z WARNING. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A POINT SOURCE ABOVE
IT, OFFSETTING THE 20 KNOTS OF VWS. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 09W WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH THE STR BEING THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME EXPECT AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CHARACTERISTICS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 48, THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED AS TS CHAN-HOM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL AREA OF DISTURBANCE MENTIONED IN THE ABPW10
PGTW 301500. ADDITIONALLY, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE
EAST, ALLOWING TS 09W TO ADD A NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO ITS TRACK.
   C. IN THE EXTENDING FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT TS 09W TO ABSORB THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE (94W) AND TRACK
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE OVERALL
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 120, BUT OVERALL IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHWARD TURN IN THE WAKE
OF THE STEERING STR. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND
THE CHANGES IN INITIAL SPEED AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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