Tropical Storm DUJUAN Advisory Mo, 28.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LARGE
46-NM EYE, ALLOWING FOR THE CURRENT POSITION TO BE LAID WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AT 127 KNOTS AND SATCON
INTENSITY OF 126 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS AREA WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE STR AS THE EXTENSION SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE EAST AND THE
RIDGE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE WEST. EXPECT TY 21W TO BEGIN TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY AS IT IMPACTS EASTERN TAIWAN IN TAU 12 AND TRACKS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS RE-EMERGING IN THE COOL WATERS OF THE TAIWAN
STRAIT. BEYOND TAU 24, TY 21W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN CHINA AND
CONTINUE TO DECAY AS FRICTIONAL FORCES WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE.//
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