Tropical Storm TWENTYTWO Advisory Mo, 25.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND
IS BASED ON RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITION ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL AS EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXERTING STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
FUELING THE FLARING CONVECTION. CURRENTLY TD 22W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER TAIWAN AND THE EASTERN
SHORE OF CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
UNDER THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF VIETNAM AND BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND.
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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