Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Do, 27.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SLIGHTLY SHEARED FROM A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMAGERY
PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 262230Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES THE EXPOSED LLCC TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
FAVORABLE WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE STRUGGLING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH NO INDICATION OF FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS MOST LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY. TS 03W HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS AND STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING STR AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
IMPACTS OF THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
STORM, LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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